Beyond the Peak: Why Planning for Predictable Catalysts is a CEO’s Greatest Challenge

For most corporate leaders, the primary job description is navigating the fog of uncertainty. They spend their careers preparing for "black swan" events—the supply chain shocks, the sudden market downturns, or the disruptive moves of a competitor that appear on no calendar. Yet, there is a distinct, often overlooked challenge in leading an organization toward a "known catalyst"—a fixed point on the horizon where demand will inevitably surge.

USA Fencing CEO Phil Andrews argues that while a looming deadline might seem like a luxury compared to the chaotic nature of crisis management, it presents a unique, sophisticated set of strategic traps. As the organization gears up for the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games in Los Angeles, Andrews is eschewing the traditional "peak-and-trough" approach in favor of a long-term sustainability model that prioritizes infrastructure over immediate media hype.

Main Facts: The Los Angeles 2028 Mandate

For the world of fencing, the Olympic cycle is the primary engine of public interest. During those two weeks, American curiosity spikes, athletes become household names, and fencing clubs across the nation experience a sudden, overwhelming influx of inquiries. Historically, however, this interest follows a predictable decay; the sport reverts to a niche activity, losing the momentum gained during the Games.

USA Fencing is attempting to break this cycle. With an operating budget of $17.6 million, the organization is deliberately restructuring its financial and operational strategy to ensure that the 2028 "Olympic bump" serves as a foundation for 2032 and beyond, rather than a fleeting moment of glory.

Chronology: The Road to 2028 and Beyond

The strategic planning process at USA Fencing is mapped out against a four-year runway leading to the Los Angeles Games, with an additional four-year horizon reaching toward the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

• 2024–2025 (Foundation Phase): Focus on aggressive investment in marketing, infrastructure, and club capacity. The goal is to build the "pipes" before the water begins to flow.
• 2026–2027 (Scaling Phase): Refining coaching programs and optimizing the introductory experience for new participants.
• Summer 2028 (The Catalyst): The Los Angeles Olympic and Paralympic Games. USA Fencing expects a massive surge in demand and public visibility.
• 2029–2032 (The Compounding Phase): The true test of the current strategy. The success of the organization will be measured not by the participation numbers of 2028, but by the retention and growth metrics leading into the 2032 Brisbane Games.

Supporting Data and Financial Strategy

The organizational philosophy under Andrews rests on four pillars that redefine how a non-profit sports governing body manages capital.

1. Spending Ahead of the Demand

This year, USA Fencing allocated $2.8 million—roughly 16% of its total operating budget—to marketing and communications. While high for an organization of its size, Andrews views this as a vital investment in capacity. "The audience shows up in 2028," Andrews notes. "The capacity to serve that audience has to exist well before then." If the organization waited until the Games began to invest in marketing, they would be manufacturing a "bad first experience" for new families who find that local clubs are unequipped, understaffed, or inaccessible.

2. Protecting the Floor

Financial fragility is often masked by high growth. USA Fencing is operating on a razor-thin margin of 1.7%, projecting a net income of approximately $299,000. However, this is balanced by a non-negotiable financial floor: a reserve fund equal to three months of operating expenses. By treating this reserve as untouchable, the organization separates its operating margin from its institutional health.

3. Pre-Defining Failure

Growth investments are notoriously difficult to kill once they gain momentum and internal advocates. To solve this, USA Fencing now requires a "stopping condition" at the moment of approval. For instance, a grant program providing $5,000 to clubs for introductory programming comes with a specific KPI: 30 to 50 new young people reached per club. If the program fails to meet these metrics, the exit ramp is already built, preventing the organization from pouring "good money after bad."

4. Metrics That Outlive the Event

Perhaps the most radical departure from traditional sports management is the decision to prioritize metrics that extend well beyond the Olympic fortnight. Andrews frequently asks his team: "What does the sport look like in Brisbane 2032?" This mindset shifts funding away from temporary media spikes and toward compounding assets, such as school programs and coaching certifications, which create long-term stability rather than transient noise.

Official Responses and Internal Philosophy

In discussions regarding this strategy, the leadership at USA Fencing emphasizes that their board has had to adapt to a new definition of success. It is an "uncomfortable thing," Andrews admits, to tell a board that the 2028 performance metrics are secondary to the 2032 health of the sport.

"The finance question is not whether to invest ahead of [a catalyst]," Andrews argues. "It is whether you have built the three things that let you invest ahead of it responsibly: a floor you will not breach, a stopping condition you wrote down while you were still objective, and a measure of success dated well after the moment everyone else is looking at."

This approach reflects a shift from "event-based" leadership to "system-based" leadership. By focusing on the structural integrity of the sport, the organization is effectively trying to turn a periodic surge into a permanent increase in market share.

Implications for Corporate Leadership

While USA Fencing’s specific goal is to grow the sport of fencing, the implications for the broader corporate world are significant. Many companies face "structural equivalents" to the Olympics:

• Patent Cliffs: Pharmaceutical companies often have years of notice before a major drug goes generic.
• Regulatory Deadlines: Tech and financial firms frequently navigate known dates for environmental or privacy compliance shifts.
• Product Cycles: Retail and manufacturing entities often plan around multi-year R&D and release cadences.

The lessons from USA Fencing suggest that the temptation to "wait and see" is the enemy of long-term value. When a company knows a catalyst is coming, the goal should not be to maximize the impact of the event itself, but to leverage the event to build a more resilient infrastructure.

The "transferable version" of this strategy requires leaders to be disciplined enough to ignore the immediate gratification of a spike in revenue or media coverage. If a company spends its reserves during a boom, it will find itself fragile when the market shifts. Conversely, if it builds during the quiet periods, it creates a moat that competitors cannot easily cross.

Conclusion: The Long View

As USA Fencing looks toward 2032, they are effectively betting against the short-termism that plagues many modern organizations. By treating the 2028 Olympics as a milestone rather than a destination, they are attempting to build an institution that is structurally capable of absorbing the interest of a generation of new fencers.

Whether this strategy will pay off in full remains to be seen, but the methodology itself offers a blueprint for any leader dealing with a known, fixed-point future. In an era of constant, unpredictable change, the ability to plan for the predictable—with discipline, clear metrics, and a long-term horizon—may be the ultimate competitive advantage. As Andrews aptly puts it: "That is a long time to hold a position, which is exactly the point."